Do I agree with that? I do not. Because there are just any of a number of ways in which this kind of distorts reality. The easiest and maybe least consequential case happened on a Coinbase earnings call where Brian Armstrong pulls up Polymarket, and he looks at the bets that he would say certain words. Then he reads them off and all of those bets resolve because he has chosen to resolve them in a specific way. That’s a pseudo-event. That’s maybe not the biggest deal, but it is still a way in which these betting markets are affecting reality.
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Twice more, Gambill recalls, Friedmann threatened to kill him. “I had to make a decision,” the manager told me. “Am I going to die with a bullet in the back of my head or one in the front?” He had a revolver tucked into his waistband, hidden by his blazer.